Data Dive Into Early Numeracy

The Universal Screeners for Number Sense (USNS) are designed to provide clear, actionable insights into students’ numeracy development. Paired with Forefront, the assessments also offer a national benchmark called the USNS Global Cohort. After diving into nearly 150,000 student records in the USNS Global Cohort dataset this fall, our team uncovered four key insights that paint a picture of early numeracy across the country. These findings reveal which foundational skills are most challenging, where early gaps emerge, and how opportunity gaps grow over time, offering a critical lens for teachers and interventionists committed to supporting their students’ math learning.

The USNS Global Cohort

Comprised of schools and districts across 29 US states and a select number of international schools in the Middle East, North Africa, and South America, the USNS Global Cohort is a national dataset of anonymous, aggregated results from the USNS assessments. The dataset includes the participation of 844 schools and nearly 150,000 student records. It is a dynamic dataset; as the use and adoption of the USNS assessment tools and Forefront has grown in popularity, the dataset has grown.

For Forefront clients, you may learn how to access and add this dataset to your reports [here]. This dataset can provide a national benchmark for comparing results at the classroom, school, or district level. It can be viewed alongside overall assessment results, item analysis results, standards performance, and, for districts that have demographics enabled, it can be disaggregated to review performance gaps across different student groups.

Counting, Counting, Counting

In the fall kindergarten assessments, the most challenging tasks are related to counting and cardinality. Many students are approaching their conceptual understanding of cardinality, but do not understand that the number of objects is the same regardless of their arrangement or the order in which they were counted. The video below shows the most missed task in kindergarten.

The first tasks in each of the Screeners are related to the number sequence: counting forward and backward. Understanding the number sequence is a foundational skill for working with numbers. In the lower grades, the students that miss these tasks or struggle to count to ten, 100, or cross centuries and millennia, need immediate attention.

Alternatively, in upper elementary, these tasks reveal that students may not be provided with enough opportunities to understand and practice the number sequence. In particular, backward counting is not often a standard part of curricula, as it is not included in the Common Core grade-level expectations. The ability of students to recite the number sequence backwards, however, is an essential precursor to understanding subtraction. Providing students with the opportunity to practice counting in your classrooms is key to their mathematical development.

Subtraction is the Primary Struggle in Kindergarten and First Grade

In the midyear and spring Kindergarten assessments, and continuing into first grade, subtraction consistently emerges as a primary conceptual struggle for students. The interview-based format of the USNS assessments allows teachers to observe and analyze how students approach subtraction, revealing that the concept of “take-away” presents more difficulty than addition. Kindergarteners encounter subtraction through both covered tasks—where counters are removed or hidden—and traditional expressions, with results showing students struggle to grasp the underlying concept. Take the following task:

“Here are 8 objects.” The teacher covers them up. “I’m taking two back out.” The teacher removes 2 from under the cover, leaving them exposed on the table and asks, “How many are still under here?”

This end of kindergarten task represents a significant step in understanding for many students. The ability to know 8 as a composite number and then to work back to 2 and recognize that 6 remain marks a step toward more advanced thinking. Students that demonstrate this understanding of subtraction have the foundation for lasting success. Students who are able to solve and communicate understanding of subtraction through 100 by the end of 2nd grade are well on their way towards success throughout their elementary school years. [Read on for a study of 3 second grade tasks’ predictive validity for Colorado CMAS results.] For students that struggle with these tasks, additional supports are essential.

Place Value: A Core Focus from Second Grade Onward

Place value, first assessed in the fall of first grade through tasks measuring students’ understanding of tens and ones, quickly becomes a primary area of difficulty alongside subtraction. This early challenge in first and second grade highlights the need for targeted support. Below is an example of a midyear first-grade place value task.

As place value demands increase, so do students’ struggles, especially in parallel with the common difficulties first and second-graders face in subtraction. By the end of second grade, more students are falling short of meeting grade-level expectations in place value, making it the biggest challenge at this stage.

These challenges persist into third grade, where the task “45 + 19” has shown declining performance over the past four years. In fall assessments, student success rates on this task have dropped from 50% to 24%. This struggle continues to intensify by fifth grade when students encounter decimals. Many fifth graders grapple with understanding decimal place value, often reading 0.5 as “point five” rather than “five tenths.” Activities like drawing one-tenth of a whole can be highly effective in building students’ fractional reasoning.

Fractions: The Gateway to Middle School Math Success

As early as third grade, fractions are introduced, but many students face considerable conceptual difficulties. These struggles persist into fourth and fifth grades, and students struggle to keep pace with the expectations set by Common Core. A robust understanding of fractions is essential for success in middle school math, as it forms the foundation for more advanced concepts. Allocating sufficient instructional time to fractions is therefore crucial to help students practice and solidify this skill; without it, students often encounter increasing challenges across their math journey.

Growing Performance Gaps in Elementary Math

As grade-level expectations rise, students are finding it harder to keep pace. A closer look at end-of-year proficiency data through our Number Sense lens reveals that while second-graders generally show stronger performance, there is a marked decline by third grade, particularly in foundational areas like multiplication and fractions.

For districts using demographic tracking, data from the USNS Global Cohort reveals early and widening performance gaps across gender, race, and ethnicity. For example, results comparing boys (blue line) and girls (orange line) show little difference in kindergarten, but by third grade, notable gaps emerge and continue widening. A similar trend is evident when comparing census race (Hispanic and non-Hispanic) and ethnicity categories (Native, Pacific Islander, Latino, Multiple Ethnicities, Asian, Black, and White). For Forefront clients, districts that have demographics enabled [learn more here] can disaggregate results by these categories [read more]. 

Instructional Responses: Whole Group vs. Small Group

When analyzing assessment data, educators face a key question: when should gaps be addressed with whole-class Tier 1 interventions, and when are small-group interventions more appropriate? Generally, it depends on the prevalence of the skill gap. For instance, if only 9% of students struggle with numeral identification (as shown in our 2024 USNS results), small-group support may be most effective. In contrast, when a third to half of students experience difficulty, whole-class instruction is more likely to address the needs broadly. Read on for more about how to address number sense in whole group versus small group settings. [Keep reading].

Conclusion

The insights gained from the USNS dataset highlight critical areas in early numeracy where students commonly struggle—particularly in counting, subtraction, and place value—and reveal opportunity gaps that deepen over time. As a dynamic, nationally representative dataset, the USNS Global Cohort continues to grow alongside the adoption of USNS assessments and Forefront, offering teachers, interventionists, and administrators an invaluable benchmark for tracking and supporting student growth in number sense.

For current Forefront clients, instructions on how to integrate this dataset into your reports are available [here]. For those interested in learning more about the impact and utility of the USNS tools, join us for a live demo on November 6th, 2024, at 2 pm EST to explore how this dataset can support meaningful progress in early math education. [Register for the demo].